EB-1A or NIW? USCIS approval rates flipped in 2026

The two self-petition green cards are moving in opposite directions, and it changes which one most people should lead with.

What the latest USCIS data shows (April to June 2026, compiled by WeGreened from USCIS figures):

• EB-2 NIW: 55.3% of decided petitions approved, up from 35.7% nine months earlier.
• EB-1A: 32.2% approved, down for a sixth straight quarter. That quarter had 2,832 denials against 1,348 approvals.

What this means in practice

1. A strong NIW case is the better anchor for most profiles right now. NIW asks whether your work has national importance and whether you are well positioned to advance it (the Dhanasar test). EB-1A asks you to prove you are at the very top of your field.
2. Filing both is still common. EB-1A skips the EB-2 queue, which matters a lot for India and China born applicants. Just keep a thin EB-1A from slowing down a strong NIW.
3. Specific evidence moves the odds. Since USCIS tightened its NIW guidance in January 2025, vague claims of national importance get denied and documented impact gets approved.

Want to know which path your profile fits? The free eligibility check takes about 3 minutes and needs no account:
https://www.f-1careers.com/explorer?utm_source=community&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=approval_rates_fy26q3

Sources: USCIS I-140 data as analyzed by WeGreened (FY2026 Q3); USCIS Policy Manual NIW update, January 15, 2025.
Education and strategy, not legal advice. Talk to a licensed immigration attorney before filing.